Central Bank prepared for a drop in oil prices below $ 40 a barrel – RBC

The Chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Elvira Nabiullina during a press conference after the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation

Photo: TASS

On Friday, September 11, the Bank of Russia introduced new scenarios for the Russian economy, which are published in the “Main directions of monetary policy for the years 2016-2018″ . Stress scenarios, developed by the regulator, implies a decline in oil prices below $ 40. / Bbl. and inflation at 7-9% in 2016.

The script also includes the preservation of external sanctions on the Russian economy over the three-year period without a significant change in the scope or nature of their actions, said the chairman of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina.

In the case of stress scenario “access to the path of growth of the Russian economy can only be in 2018″ – said Nabiullina. «The risk scenario unfavorable external factors resulted in a stronger and more prolonged downturn in investment and consumer activity. The fall in GDP could deepen in 2016 and continued in 2017 », – she explained. At the same time, she said, the implementation of the stress scenario will require tighter monetary policy.

Earlier in March, the Central Bank has pledged in a stressful scenario of economic development preserving Urals price at $ 40 per barrel in the next three years. According to forecasts of the regulator, the scenario envisaged inflation of 17-19% by 2015 and reducing GDP by 5,3-5,8%.

For the first time the regulator stress scenario developed in October 2014. Then the Central Bank said that the fall in world oil prices to 60 dollars. / Bbl. the Russian economy in 2015 will fall to 4.5-4.7%. Its probability of control is assessed as low. “The purpose of this scenario – a scenario to draw a shock to work out some kind of action that will need to make in order to limit the negative consequences”, – explained the first deputy chairman Ksenia Yudaeva.