Image copyright AFP Security Council of the Netherlands to investigate the causes and consequences of accidents and disasters, presented the report about the crash in 2014 in eastern Ukraine airliner Malaysia Airlines MH17. According to the conclusions of experts, the plane was hit by anti-aircraft missile systems “Buk”, all other versions, including the use of missiles, “air-air” Technical Commission excluded.
Experts have outlined an area of 320 square kilometers, from which could be launched rocket. However, this area has not got Zaroschenskoe village of neighborhoods whose plane was shot down according to the manufacturer’s “letter”, the Russian company “Almaz-Antey”. To determine the precise location have to launch a separate investigation, which is not within the competence of the Security Council of the Netherlands.
Representatives of the defense group appointed his press conference on the same day that its conclusions were sound Dutch experts. Among other things, they said that the Malaysian “Boeing” could shoot down a missile, “Beech” has older modification than previously. According to the results of the experiment, the specialists of “Almaz-Antei” came to the conclusion that if the plane was hit by a missile from the complex “Buk-M1″, that it was a missile 9M38, not 9M38M1.
bi Correspondents BBC asked the Russian, Ukrainian and British experts about what the consequences might be presented Oct. 13 report, including Russia.
Sergei Mikheyev, a Russian political scientist:
“In the Dutch report evidence of” Buka “militias and Russia has not been found. We all remember how Russia, the DNI and the LC immediately began to accuse, but this report is absolutely not to be such an unambiguous conclusion. So All charges were empty. Moreover, the area, which indicated a Dutch commission makes quite legitimate version of that missile could be fired from the territory controlled by the Ukrainians. In my opinion, this is a very unpleasant conclusions for the Ukrainian side, because they becoming one of the suspects. As to the Russian report, the claims against the Dutch in it sufficiently substantiated. Why could not really draw on the expertise of Russian specialists and manufacturers of complex “Buk”, to be honest, it is not clear.
The tension in Russia is saved as to the information, and from the political point of view, because the examination, according to the Russian hand, it conducted a biased and accusatory still present. However, to prove the involvement of Russia or the militias, [investigators leading a criminal investigation] is not possible. Or it will be allegations or these conclusions will be sorely missed facts. It is clear that Russia has long appointed guilty, but in terms of the evidence base, and now it is ambiguous, and a criminal investigation will be even more controversial, because no real investigation is not conducted on the ground. At best, these people are sitting somewhere in Kiev and say that they are not biased, is not necessary. If not in Kiev and in Brussels or Amsterdam, by what means they conduct such an investigation there? The findings will not be justified, whatever they may be.
The International Tribunal also has no prospects. If it does not agree to Russia, it will be a completely one-sided action. Hard to say benefit from the tribunal or not Russia. For example, there are now a lot of questions about why so having technical expertise. There are no answers. If the tribunal will also take place, and the Russian opinion is ignored, why do we need such a tribunal. If you can cause all, perhaps it would be helpful. For example, Mr. Kolomoisky, all controllers in the airport Dnipropetrovsk, all those responsible for airspace, military officers in Ukraine, but is ready if in fact the tribunal to such a course of action – a question. Shooters? I know him personally, I met with him and from him anything [statements of downed aircraft in social networks] have not heard, and certainly he did not confirm it in any Hague Tribunal “.
Alexander Paly, Ukrainian political expert:
” Customer of the disaster was the Russian leadership. In my opinion, this is obvious, because otherwise this powerful weapon could not be separatists. I do not rule out that this was a deliberate act with a view to accuse Ukraine of the crime. Was fixed transport installations “Buk” on the territory of Russia in the direction of Donbass, simple Russian citizens placed this video on the Internet.
Let me remind you that the basic sanctions against Russia, the West imposed shortly after the accident flight MH17. Though directly it was not about that, but the disaster was another incentive, because even the very first studies prove who shot and from the aircraft. So I think that the conclusion of the criminal case, which is expected in early 2016, will be named as the actual perpetrators of the crime and its customers.
But since Russia blocked the UN Security Council resolution on the establishment an international tribunal, I think that the investigation and punishment can take years. I think that the future of Russia’s leadership will reconsider its attitude to global security and to the events in Ukraine. Maybe we will see a guilty plea for the downed aircraft and compensation to the families of the victims, issuing performers, of course, if they are still alive. But I repeat that it is a prolonged period of time “.
Igor Sutyagin, a scholar, a member of the Royal Institute of Defence Studies in London:
“I think that for Russia in general, have very large effects will not, because it is here the classic version – with friends like enemies do not. Russia is much more currently creates problems than it receives them from the outside. The report – half of the study, further criminal investigation will consider other issues. But now the Russian side simply delighted because they were able to avoid naming the perpetrators of these events, and relaxed a bit at the moment. Naturally, the Russian side is very much hopes that this enthusiasm, which now have to be used for conclusive proof countries, say, the EU, the need for lifting the sanctions imposed against Russia. This is what achieves struggling Kremlin.
Of course, there will be consequences [for direct executors rocket launch, which, according to organizations that conduct independent investigations, such Bellingcat, known to them]. They even called themselves. There is a man who photographed himself in a truck that was carrying the launchers, and within the launcher. That is, in principle, known. If he is still alive, it’s good. Nope body, no matter – it’s the old kind of logic – no man, no problem. This is known in general in the last 80 years in Russia’s ruling structure. Delete this can not be.
Here, today, “Almaz-Antei” has published, for example, its report. As they say in British, some of their statements can not be called a true risk-free to make a technical error. But they are not afraid of the same the whole world here and so save on truth. Well, why others do not do the same, not in words but in deeds. In principle, it is possible. In Russia, it is possible. In his speech, “Almaz-Antei” has shown that the protection is that the protection is active and based, unfortunately, on the economies of the truth.
What measures can be taken? Well, you can, for example, catch “Almaz-Antei” a lie and say, “Wait, we have established that brought down here this missile, we have established that you have these missiles there, we found that you are trying to cheat by making false statements . Photos by the way, this same launcher, which later appeared in the Ukraine transported through Russian territory with these same missiles, then it is there, then it is already disappearing without a rocket – that is, after all, it’s you “. Sorry, for the three days before the newspaper “Vzglyad” publishes information that we have this facility and we can not continue as it is today shot down this setting Ukrainian aircraft “AN-26″.
Here you can talk only that there is a fight for something to lift sanctions against Russia, but the fight is not over, because the Russian side the struggle is sloppy. If you lie, you have to take into account all the details, and they are to react. And turn your back to the problem – because these details are – not the best way to solve the problem “.
Paul Svyatenkov, a political scientist, an expert of the Russian Fund of historical perspective:
“The report was much less severe than expected. There are some hints of guilt militias, but virtually nothing directly said. The main thing – a reproach to the Ukrainian authorities that they did not stop air service. “Boeing”, of course, could not be brought down if the Ukrainian authorities banned flights over the territory where there is a conflict, since it is controlled Ukraine sky. The very appearance of civil aircraft in a war zone – is strange.
tantrums that accompany this case, it is not visible. The impression is that the idea of the political process of Russia with the prosecution that was brought down by “Boeing” shelved. I think this is evidence of the political situation. First, Russia has demonstrated its in Syria are serious military capabilities. The second factor – in the east of Ukraine is calm, although we can not speak about a comprehensive settlement. In these circumstances, the West has decided not to aggravate the situation, because such reports, we understand, are highly dependent on the specific situation. Agree to international tribunals, which are a political tool, should not, under any circumstances, otherwise it will turn into a trial of Russia, regardless of the facts.
Still, it depends on the interpretation of the facts, and the West has no hard evidence that the plane was shot down militia. When Russia bombed Syria published videos, which show where the rocket hit. I think that US satellites are able to track the flight of the aircraft, the approximate location of take-off rockets and the like. From a political point of view, it is clear that the scandal has been beneficial to the Ukrainian authorities and the United States, since it would make the imposition of sanctions against Russia.
Of course, the perpetrators can be identified [by the results of the criminal investigation], but again, everything will depend on the political situation. Recently, the Americans fired at a hospital in Afghanistan. As we know, no particular tragedy is not caused, and no tribunals no one demanded. If the relationship between Russia and the West deteriorate again, the Netherlands will be able to place the blame on Russia. If improved, the case can put a brake. Unlikely to blame for what happened current Ukrainian regime, except that if there will be some serious changes in the western summit. Let’s come to power, the US administration, which the current government in Kiev is not profitable, as in the case of Mikhail Saakashvili in Georgia “.
Alexei Miller, an expert on foreign policy and international security Ukrainian Razumkov Center:
“I think that talking about any kind of legal or political consequences for the person who is guilty of this disaster, it is too early: even before the publication stated that the purpose of the report is to identify the causes of the disaster and not directly responsible. In the form in which the conclusions formulated in the report, for Russia is some room to continue to produce different versions to support its current position, ie, that Russia is absolutely not privy to it. For example, the area from which the rocket was launched, ranked in the liner, designated as a few hundred square kilometers.
Russia will cling to any opportunity in their own way to interpret this report. Obviously, we should expect the end of the criminal investigation, which is expected early next year. In it, I hope, will not simply be called artists, but also be established with those who give them orders, who provided them with these weapons.
The creation of an international tribunal in connection with the disaster and its investigation – it In my view, two processes that go hand in hand. Under the international tribunal is now meant the tribunal, which will be created by a group of countries, especially those whose members died in the crash, and, obviously, with the participation of Ukraine. But the prospect of the creation of the tribunal under the auspices of the United Nations, Russia had already vetoed. It is unlikely that it will change its stance, particularly with an eye to the findings articulated in the report “.
Justin Bronk, a military analyst at the Royal Institute of Defence Studies in London:
“The report stated that it was expected. The fact that he was definitely hit by the missile system “Buk” (SA-11), – the conclusion, and I and many others have come in the past year, after only a few hours after the disaster. In this sense, there is no big surprises. Interesting details of the report – specific findings of doctors that passengers are not tormented before his death. As to how and what kind of missile system was hit by a plane – no surprises. I think that it is virtually impossible for a researcher working with open sources of information, to determine exactly who was inside the launcher and hit the start button. It is very difficult.
If I had to speculate, it would suggest that the members of the team that launched the missile, has long been dead. They have long since vanished in the direction of Russia. With regard to the work carried out Bellingcat during the initial investigation and handling of open sources of information about the wreckage of the aircraft, which I helped them personally, as well as their efforts to detect the route setup that moved through Ukrainian territory under the control of separatists, before and after the crash Aircraft – all this looks quite convincing.
I think that the consequences will be for any individual country, but Russia will continue what she was doing before, and have, of course, made a precautionary step before the publication of the report after spending his “own investigation.” Thus, there are consequences in the sense that to get Russia to agree that her numerous accusations of Ukrainian fighter, who was allegedly somehow – missiles or guns – shot down “Boeing” (incidentally, these allegations were and are simply incredible) It is untrue. Rest of the world have long agreed that Russia provided missiles, and possibly a specialist who started it. In this sense, it is unlikely that will change.
I think it is necessary to continue in the direction of a criminal investigation, which has the authority to place the blame on someone – this is exactly what the authors of today’s report have tried in every way to avoid. But in the end, if those who believe the perpetrators of this act are now in Russia or in the territory controlled by the separatists in Ukraine, they are unlikely to ever be given in the hands of authorities, conducting international trials. Of course, we can hope that someday someone will take responsibility, but in the current geopolitical environment, this can not happen. It turns out that the Netherlands and the international community can do little or nothing to bring to justice those who are directly responsible for what happened “.
No comments:
Post a Comment