Image copyright RIA Novosti Bloomberg agency, citing sources reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev led by former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin talks about his possible return the power.
Sources of publications claim that Kudrin is ready to offer the post of first deputy head of the presidential administration, or the first vice-premier. This official proposal has not yet been made, although the talks reportedly already made considerable progress.
Representatives Kudrin confirmed that he recently held a meeting with Prime Minister Medvedev, however, argue that the return of the former minister in the power of her was not discussed . It was after the conflict with Medvedev, who was then president, Kudrin in 2011 left his post.
The Minister explained his resignation that broke with the president in the views on military spending. According to Kudrin, it is considered a significant increase in defense spending mistake. Now the former minister heads of committees of civil initiatives and criticizes the economic policies of the government.
BBC Russian Service asked the experts what they think can be done in the current economic situation of a person like Kudrin?
The Dean of the Faculty of Economics at the European University in St. Petersburg, Maksim Buev
I think that the main challenge facing him – it is the normalization of the budget process. The revision of views on the financing of the army, I think, it can not by itself represent a greater weight than Siluanov.
His [Kudrin] views are not different from the presidential, according to which the Ministry of Defence should be financed, but Kudrin believes that it is not necessary to do an emergency way – over five years – and stretch it to, say, ten. That is done in the same amount, but more slowly, at the same time sending money to other projects more necessary.
I think that the negotiations will be conducted in this direction. Recently Kudrin said on the costs of Syria about the same thing that the Americans say – that in fact Russia is cheap enough spent the whole operation. Kudrin OVOR This confirms that the question is long-term financing of the Ministry of Defense.
Surely to resume negotiations on the revision of social support in one form or another. Well, we see that we have the budget is formed under very catastrophic and wrong forecast oil prices: all obvious that the most pessimistic scenario, which laid down the government – in fact, even optimistic in terms of the market.
More I think that the return Kudrin can be elegant step to a reversal in the policy – for the lifting of sanctions. If Kudrin became prime minister, it would allow the same Medvedev to save face. One thing, when his power is first introduced [response] sanctions, then canceled – it would look as if he has gone back on their word. And so – came a new man who cancels the sanctions, and the president of the government could save face.
In fact, over the past year – a comment of any any serious analysts – the government just sat idly by and do nothing It made. We just waited. If anyone remembers the 90s, perhaps Putin’s first term – were constantly talking about the necessity of certain reforms, the other … Another thing that they failed, but at least, there was talk about some reforms in the economy.
Over the last year there is no talk about the fact that something must be done, it did not exist. Although the situation is getting worse, and it is clear that it is necessary to reconsider many things.
I think that the arrival of Kudrin potentially mean the resumption of reformist rhetoric, this is the first. And secondly, I think a lot of what can be done simply because before that absolutely nothing has been done. If you now will be some reasonable steps related to the budget, with the revision of spending on infrastructure, with the revision of the distribution of tenders – in all these areas much can be done.
Another thing, it depends on what kind of post will be Kudrin hold. If this is not the prime ministerial post – if he is an advisor, or even be just the Ministry of Finance – I do not think that the next budget its power and its influence will be really tangible.
Deputy Director General Investment Company “Region” Anatoly Jodorowsky
Assign Alexei Kudrin “responsible” for the fight against the economic crisis (and in any capacity and at any position) will not have a practical use Nike. In my opinion, it is – nachfin times of high oil prices. But they do not and will not in the near future. There is a budget to the execution of which copes and the current leadership of the Ministry of Finance.
Do not forget that Kudrin went to protest against the disproportionate increase in military expenditures. During his absence in the power they have as much or more. And nobody will be reduced, and mechanically cut spending on education, health care and pension system can and without Kudrin.
Today, the problem is not in the budget, and adequate assessment of the real situation, the adoption of radical decisions, not so much economic as political, and very painful. This process Alexei Leonidovich, despite its proximity to the president of a multi-year, will not be involved.
If such an appointment and take place, its effectiveness can be measured only in terms of PR. But Kudrin as a Russian official and reformer, speaking beautiful words in Davos, is unlikely to help in the current situation. Despite his liberal image, the West this bait will not swallow and sanctions will not cancel.
Liberal horror (“here Kudrin will show you!”) For internal use for a long time no one is afraid, and the system of checks and balances our country has long been abandoned. So from this point of view is no practical benefit of déjà vu will not.
In general, I think that the degree of liberal Alexei Kudrin somewhat exaggerated. To cut off oil revenues in an era of high prices, to budget underestimated the forecast and get dopdohodov, as the forces and capabilities to confront lobbyists – is not liberal, and the position of common accountant or financial director.
But not, he defines the rules games without a change which is not a crisis will not win. No the real reform of our long-standing practice (not only in Moscow but also in the St. Petersburg when he was) Kudrin did not.
Associate Professor of Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University Oleg Buklemishev
I think the only thing he could – to loudly declare a certain position, which is different from the current mainstream. A part of that, whether it is something actually do – I, frankly, not very sure.
All past experience shows that the ongoing today, fiscal policy – it is, by and large, the policy Kudrin and not someone else. What is being done, at least in the financial sector does not differ from what has been done some time ago.
The only difference – the situation has become much tougher in terms of revenue [budget] respectively, and the expenditure policy priorities have to clean up. But I do not think it [Kudrin] priorities would be different than the current stated.
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