Russia is going to throw its 2000 military air base in Syria, near the city of Latakia, the Financial Times reported, citing its sources. This movement of troops will actually be “the first phase of the mission” of Russia in the area, resulting in the publication the words of one of the consultants on Syria in Moscow. The composition of this group will include the crews of combat aircraft, engineers and soldiers to guard the base, according to another source of the newspaper.
Three representatives of the military departments of the Western countries, who spoke Financial Times, said that the planned transfer of troops coincides with the number of troops required for the deployment of the military base, similar to those built Western military in Afghanistan.
Deputy Director of the Institute of Military and Political Analysis Alexander Khramchikhin believes that the key difference between the US and Russian positions on Syria that the Americans consider it possible to separately deal with LIH (organization banned in Russia) and at the same time support the opposition directed against Syrian President Bashar Assad.
«But this is impossible. This is one of the components of the Syrian opposition. You can only fight with all “- says Hramchihin. He is convinced that the forces that Russia throws to Syria directly aimed at combating insurgents.
will show “gruel»?
Now there are several versions why Russia so actively increasing its influence in Syria. Supporters of the first version believe that the decision to intervene in the Syrian conflict on the side of Bashar al-Assad – a desire to show “gruel” high-handed to the West, which is actively trying to deprive the Russian influence in the Middle East, especially in Syria, where its influence has always been significant.
It is the military advisers of the USSR provided assistance to Syria in the confrontation with Israel in the 1980s, however, a major impact on the conflict have failed – Israel was able to win over Syria, which was unable to regain previously captured the Golan Heights.
However, many serious experts believe such a version, to say the least, inconsistent. The main reason is that the military Bashar al-Assad are fighting not only against the Islamists of all stripes, but also against the rebels, aided by Washington, and it means that a collision with them the Russian military could seriously complicate the already very complicated relations between Russia and the United States, which Today, on the brink of “cold war».
Putin pledges support
Another popular version – Putin remain pragmatic, trying to find ways to determine the “reconciliation “with the West, at least for tactical purposes. So he entered in 2001, when, after September 11, the first phone call to US President George W. Bush not only to express condolences but also to offer help in the fight against terrorists in Afghanistan.
It is worth noting that its fight against terrorists in Afghanistan, Russia has waged its own. It supplied weapons “Northern Alliance”, which was headed by a former enemy of Ahmad Shah Massoud, who fought against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan.
The fact that Russia pursues in Syria is the goal, recently noted in his column in The Washigton Post prominent American political analyst Charles Krauthammer.
«Putin to the rescue. Just as in the debate over chemical weapons, he comes and saves the world. If we give in, Putin will become an indispensable partner. He begins to military and diplomatic consultations with us. Its isolation in connection with Ukraine suspended and together with Iran becomes a regional arbiter, “- writes The Washigton Post. The publication notes that Putin’s strategy “may not work, but it is not absurd».
According to Russian political scientist-blizhnevostochnika Nada Fridrihsons, the United States and Russia can indeed become a “situational allies” in Syria, in today’s circumstances.
«Both the US and Russia are interested in deterring terrorists and reducing the areas of their influence, – says Fridrihsons. – Cooperation will continue until the capacity of the IG, and “Al-Nusra Front” will not be “acceptable” for external players, then the classic confrontation between the Syrian crisis between Russia and to the US and back to normal ».
At the same time, the British expert Andrew Foksoll believes Putin on Syria “can not be trusted.” In his comments to The New York Times, he writes that Russia is using the fight against terrorism for their own purposes, and therefore, even if the US and the West are invited to Russia to the coalition, “The West must take into account that Putin can not be trusted, and the data of his intelligence can not considered reliable ».
However, and according to their own intelligence on Syria at the Pentagon also do not trust. Last week, the department began an internal investigation that intelligence Intelligence on Syria deliberately distorted the command to create a favorable situation.
The situation with the fight against LIH in Syria themselves American military characterize how deplorable.
Help the representatives of the Syrian opposition has also proved a failure. The head of the US Central Command, General Lloyd Austin, in particular, has recently stated that 54 of the Syrian opposition, who coached the Americans were combat-ready only four or five people. Total planned to prepare 5,000 soldiers, spending is $ 500 million.
Because of this, the United States change their tactics: The Washington Post on Tuesday wrote that the administration of US President Barack Obama’s maturing plans to conduct a an aggressive military campaign in Syria to fight the LIH, where US-backed Kurdish forces reached unexpectedly impressive results in recent months.
LIH come to the Caucasus?
The third version of the Russian military presence in Syria – it is really a desire to deal with LIH as a threat to all the forces of the region, which has recently emphasized at the CSTO summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin. “The so-called” Islamic State “controls significant territories and Iraq, and Syria. The terrorists say that already threaten to Mecca, Medina, Jerusalem, “- Putin said.
But it is well aware of the situation in Syria journalist Orkhan Jemal believes that the Russian government is slightly disingenuous when they say that Assad help fight LIH. Direct clashes with government troops LIH now there – they are not fighting with them, and with the “Al-Nusra Front,” a division of “Al-Qaeda” (banned in Russia). However, if the Russian military will come into direct contact with the Islamists, they can even put their promotion to Damascus, although the price may be high.
Another risk – the transfer of the war to the Russian territory.
Now, according to estimates of the FSB, in the ranks of more than 5,000 LIH fighting the Russians and many of them to return home to continue the “jihad.” Even last year, the Islamists from LIH made an unequivocal warning to the Russian president and that will start to “bloody war” in the North Caucasus. It should be noted that when talking about the Russian military was not – Islamists threatened because of the supply air.
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