Ukraine moving closer to NATO?
- December 24, 2014
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The Verkhovna Rada adopted amendments to the laws “On the principles of domestic and foreign policy” and “On the Fundamentals of National Security of Ukraine”, concerning the refusal of the non-aligned status of the country.
President Poroshenko called for Ukraine’s accession to NATO, but stressed that the issue should be put to a national referendum.
In Moscow, as you might guess, the Rada is not welcomed by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called its unproductive confrontation and pressure, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev promised a response.
What the Kremlin can offer in return for NATO membership?
host of “Fifth Floor” Michael Smotryaev talked about it with the director of the analytical center “Penta” in Kiev, Vladimir Fesenko.
Download the podcast show “Fifth floor” here.
Michael Smotryaev: Although the decision has not yet been approved, but the motion vector selected?
VF.: Voted project Poroshenko, and it would be strange if he did not sign it. He promised to do it and to expedite the consideration of the bill. So the sensation did not happen. But the rejection of the non-aligned status does not mean that tomorrow will be the Ukraine to join NATO. We expect a long and difficult path of gradual development cooperation, which requires the modernization of the military sector and changes in the political and legal sphere.
symbolic gesture?
MS.: No one expected that NATO will take Ukraine immediately. Given what is happening in the east of the country, plus the Crimea – a NATO ally, is not very necessary. But you can do all this quietly, without loud statements to reform the army, and then to make a statement and vote in Parliament, which then could already be different in a few years. So this is more a political gesture, a symbolic, rather than military.
VF.: This is really a symbolic act, but it is of fundamental importance. Now that require public opinion, for it were the political forces represented in the coalition of the parliamentary majority. Last week the authorities sounded criticism – why it is still not canceled neutral status? The decision is adopted coalition majority of the parliament. So that it was impossible to delay.
MS.: In public opinion there is an understanding that NATO membership, if held, it does not take place tomorrow, and that the coming months, and perhaps years, it is unlikely that anything will change?
VF.: In the mass of Ukrainian citizens, including supporters of membership NATO, which have grown as a result of military and political confrontation with Russia about twice, the views are different. Someone thinks that they can start quickly. Yulia Tymoshenko proposes to hold a referendum immediately and strongly accelerate the process. But both she and parliamentarians understand that quickly fail. And the West gives clear signals in this regard. And the country’s leaders, the president, and the leading political forces rely on the “detours” – the status of a US ally outside NATO. For this was a serious effort. And multilateral cooperation with NATO.
MS.: How closely in public opinion related to NATO and the EU? We must remember that in the EU accession will not happen immediately, as European officials reported in all interviews. But if put in the Ukraine equate these concepts?
VF.: Not everyone understands the direct relationship of these processes, but it is not so and straight. In public opinion, such an understanding, probably not. Although advocates of Ukraine’s membership in NATO is already long time ago, when Yushchenko, then under Yanukovych, focused on the fact that most of the new EU member states were there through NATO. And they tried to convince the public that it is an iron law. In fact, such a rigid connection is not present. These processes can be developed in parallel, and today is a priority for the European integration of Ukraine. And the question of integration into NATO became urgent in the context of military and political confrontation with Russia.
Fear of invasion
MS. : About a year ago, when the confrontation on the Maidan, we said that the expectations of the people who brought him to the area, and eventually to a state of affairs that we are seeing now, have been overestimated in some cases – significantly. NATO is unlikely to be decided on confrontation with Russia over the Crimea. How then to explain to citizens that NATO is not entered for this?
VF.: I think about the NATO there are other expectations. Budapest Memorandum, although this particular state document – about him Ukrainian population is aware widely. In particular, it guarantees that the document did not work, no one defended us. The same situation is with the non-aligned status.
Yanukovych urged: to be non-aligned status, will not tease the Russian theme of NATO and everything will be fine, we will not touch Russia. Status appeared pacifier, so from him and refused. No benefit from it, and it causes irritation.
From NATO membership in the future expect security guarantees. Specialists, in most of the politicians have an understanding that NATO will not fight us. But if we become a member of NATO, is a military and technical support, modernization of our armed forces, there is hope in the future that if we are a member of NATO, we are afraid to touch Russia. I’m not sure.
In expert circles are discussing if it works the fifth article. If Russia or someone go down in Riga or Tallinn, work unit if the fifth article? Will NATO to defend the Baltic republics? Or, as in 1939, when Poland had agreed with Britain and France, but they did not work? The question remains open, but the Ukrainians hope.
MS.: Is it so much feared invasion of Kiev to Lviv and inclusive? It is obvious that such a move Moscow does not approve.
VF.: In Kiev, March fear serious full-scale war with Russia. Most experts now, especially given the economic situation in Russia, believe that this is unlikely to happen, but the risk remains. Now, when Dmitry Medvedev threatened that Ukraine will be for the Russian military adversary, with all the ensuing consequences, the problem is that for us, Russia has become a military adversary. While this status is not fixed in military doctrine and other documents, but de facto it has already happened. Hence the search for additional tools and security guarantees. Hope may be exaggerated, but many Ukrainians believe that even rapprochement with NATO will enhance the security of Ukraine at least potentially. Justified or not, life will show. Absolute guarantee does not exist, this tells the story, including the latest.
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