President of Ukraine satisfied Sunday report Defence Minister Valery Geletey resignation. In this position, he spent only a few, but very “hot” months. Earlier in the day, Vladimir Putin announced the end of the exercise in the Rostov region, which in the West believed the cover of the invasion to the east of Ukraine. “Times” to understand, how close was the final peace after the events of this weekend.
On Sunday night Poroshenko decided to resign Defense Minister Valery Geletey, satisfied, so a report to latter. At the head of the military department, he spent less than six months – from early July.
When you join Geletey ministerial post in Ukrainian political analysts have noted, in particular, its traditional loyalty to the Western-political forces in Ukraine and work as head of the State Security Department – in fact the chief bodyguard of the president, including Poroshenko.
In addition, all life he worked in law enforcement, that is, for the armed forces was an outsider. President it was important from the point of view of the resumption of political control over the army.
During his tenure as Geletey famous for several high-profile applications.
So, he promised that Ukraine will hold a victory parade in Sevastopol, and in addition, has accused Russia of using tactical nuclear weapons in Lugansk. They provoked a mixed reaction, including in Ukraine itself, however, is to recognize the fact that in the first month of the Defense Ministry leadership Geletey Ukrainian troops have made significant progress in the fight against the rebels in the east of Ukraine.
And a rapid counter-attack forces DNR and LC on the Azov coast, in which Kiev and western countries saw Russia’s direct intervention, was interrupted by the successful actions of the Ukrainian army.
Rumors about the imminent resignation appeared Geletey in early autumn, and he has a former minister then publicly expressed concerns about the fate of the personnel assigned with him Chief of Staff Viktor Muzhenko, which, in his words, “planned and carried out a brilliant operation to the actual release of the Ukrainian Donbass”, referring to how times the July offensive Ukrainian troops.
Study ended
It is curious that the decision Poroshenko appeared on the same day when his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin announced the return of Russian troops sent to Rostov region, to their places of permanent dislocation.
«In total it is about 17.6 thousand soldiers who were teaching in the summer at the sites in the Rostov Region” , – says the official website of the Russian leader.
Meanwhile, the nature of these “scientists” from the beginning caused many questions to the west of the Russian border. In Kiev, Washington and European capitals have repeatedly stated that, with the Rostov Region, Russian troops have carried out a direct invasion of the eastern Ukraine, which became a turning point in the military conflict and urged the Ukrainian side to negotiate. Official Moscow is still denied, but literally all sides “Gazety.Ru” interpret today’s decision solely in the context of the further development of the situation in the Donbass.
It should be noted that the decision to withdraw troops from the south of the country was made the next day after the Ukrainian side confirmed the conclusion of an agreement on the delimitation of the territories under the control of official Kiev and militias.
Almost all sides “Gazety.Ru” believe that it is a frozen conflict, but there is little doubt that it will not be long.
“I think the fact of signing and Putin’s decision to withdraw its troops from the territory of the Rostov area – it parallel lines – reflects Ukrainian political analyst Mikhail Pogrebinsky. – The Russian president is ready to freeze the conflict in eastern Ukraine and the decision to withdraw troops demonstrates that he has no desire to move on. “Voyentorg” – this is the language of the militia means the supply of arms – also seems to be stopped working. Of course, Putin’s decision could be a maneuver, as troops in the Rostov region can return fairly quickly. Nevertheless, the statement of the Russian president – it is an important signal. In my view, the fighting in the near future will decline ».
The expert believes that further developments will largely depend on the results of the parliamentary elections in Ukraine. According to him, the party high ratings Poroshenko suggests that the dependence of the president of the “war party” in Kiev will be relatively small.
«In this case, the President of Ukraine will move along the path, which, judging by the everything they agreed with Putin – believes Pogrebinsky. – In case, if Poroshenko not get a parliamentary majority, it may result in a change of strategy: perhaps he will demonstrate the preparation for military action.
But there is another option: Poroshenko will seek a compromise with Moscow and the Donbas in solving social problems, and this will be the impetus for further change in the constitution of the decentralization ».
Meanwhile, the self-proclaimed republics themselves do not expect a long and lasting peace.
«Uncontrolled part is not only the militia power in Ukraine is weak and can not fully control the volunteer battalions – sure warlord DNR Oleg Melnikov. – I still do not put a peacekeeping force, OSCE observers explicitly with the problem of demarcation can not cope, we can expect that after the winter war will continue ».
At the same time he says that he has a calm attitude and a decision Putin to stop teaching at the border: people are really tired of the war and not be willing to continue.
«On this side, the right move. On the other hand, it would lead to freezing, and then again to the conflict. Lack of understanding, who won, will lead to a new round of war and violence. Until now, the international community has not given guarantees of peace to people in the Donbass, and with the other hand, civilians in danger, and freezing – wrong move on the part of Russia ».
According to him, after the formal freezing little conflict that change, in particular, do not stop shelling in the border areas – the same Donetsk, will likely continue to fire every day.
International reaction
In today’s Putin’s decision is also an important international dimension, since the withdrawal of troops and the cessation of participation in the conflict in eastern Ukraine was one of the most important requirements of the West to Moscow.
«From the point of view of the international situation the decision to withdraw the troops from the territory of the Rostov region affect on Russian well: West, I think, or will not consider the possibility of new sanctions, or even can soften old, “- says Professor at the European University in St. Petersburg Georgy votes.
His optimism, however, is not shares the chief editor of “Russia in Global Affairs” Fyodor Lukyanov.
«In everything that is happening in Ukraine, from the point of view of the West, Russia is to blame. This approach is not likely to change – says the expert. – Withdrawal of troops – a gesture more in the direction of reducing tension.
But we remember that after the armistice, the West has tightened sanctions against Russia. At this time, in the best case will not change anything, at worst – sanctions tighten again. In my opinion, the first scenario is more likely ».
Experts agree that the settlement of the situation can be almost any time to back off. Firstly, reminds Pogrebinsky, both sides do have powers that are not ready to obey any of the ceasefire agreement. Second, too many unsettled purely territorial issues.
«There are points that are of fundamental importance to both parties – for example, the airport in Donetsk, and there fighting continues – emphasizes Lukyanov. – Until then, until you finally decided that leaves one side, and that – the other, the risk of fighting persists. In the case of intensification of fighting Russia will have to respond more actively ».
In turn Votes recalls that the self-declared republics planned for November elections contrary to the Minsk Agreement and on the response to them by the Moscow will depend largely on future policy of the West in relation to itself.
«If militias refuse to perform in Minsk agreements and still hold the elections, the new escalation is inevitable – the expert believes. – I think that Russia will not accept the DNI and LC, and the election results will concern “with respect”, as was the situation with the referendum. For the West, such a scenario is not acceptable because the West insists on the respect of Minsk agreements. If Russia will take “respectful” attitude towards the elections in the DNI and LC – and it has driven itself into a situation that otherwise would not be able to act – that the West will not only mitigate the current sanctions, but will return to the issue of new ones. ”
In addition, the holding of elections in the People’s Republic of Kiev can make and go to the next phase of the military operation. In this context, the importance and the figure of the new defense minister, who Poroshenko tomorrow must present Parliament, and in particular the fate of the current head of the General Staff Muzhenko, who is considered the chief strategist for the ATU. If the latter will retain his post or be offered as a minister, the military scenario becomes even more likely.
And then the war will not be overtaken even in hibernation.