Putin said at a press conference after the summit G20, which is still convinced that the international coalition to fight the outlawed group LIH Russia can still be created.
«I think it is not only possible but also necessary to do (create a coalition),” – he said, noting, that cooperation can be established both at the political level and at the level of the security services. Putin recalled that during his speech at the UN General Assembly has called on other countries to jointly fight in Syria, and the events “have confirmed that we were right».
Now in Syria, there are two coalitions that from different sides and practically not coordinating actions with each other battling LIH. The first includes Russia, Syria, Iran and the Shiite group “Hezbollah”; Second, under the leadership of the United States, gathered under the aegis of the state, such as France, Great Britain, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan. In total, the coalition is about 60 countries, but most of them play a supporting function and the direct involvement in the fighting in Syria do not accept.
Experts point out that Putin’s statement about the possibility of creating a unified coalition was made by him after Sunday’s meeting US President Barack Obama on the sidelines of the summit of Turkish. The meeting took place after the terrorist attacks with numerous victims in Paris, as well as the disaster of the Russian aircraft in Egypt, which may have occurred as a result of the terrorist act committed by Islamists of LIH.
These events are widely perceived links of one chain – by According to experts, they have become the trigger for the rapprochement. “After the terrorist attacks occurred, Russia made the right move, and today France, Britain and the United States should follow this step. We can not delay, “- says a leading expert of the Center Gulf State Analytics in Washington Theodore Karasik.
Evidence that attitude to Russia’s actions in Syria is beginning to change, a statement on Sunday US President Barack Obama. During the meeting with Putin, he has expressed a positive attitude “to the war effort” of Russia in Syria. This is the first An approving assessment of Russia’s role in Syria from the United States, which has repeatedly criticized Russia for its military action in Syria. The main claim of the United States was that Russia mainly focuses its strikes against the forces of “moderate opposition” and not by radical Islamists.
A spokesman for the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, said that the meeting of leaders of Russia and the US not “was a turning point” and “the conversation was constructive».
According to the former deputy head of the Russian Foreign Ministry Georgy Kunadze, although the events in Paris and the tragedy of the Russian aircraft “obscured fundamental conflict” between Russia and the United States, the two sides are far of potential cooperation. “The French attacked the command posts LIH together with the US, but Russia then out of business,” – said the expert.
A better coordination of efforts by Russia and the coalition of countries led by the US in Syria would be a division of labor and coordination air strikes on terrorist bases, the head of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy Fyodor Lukyanov. “For example, we bomb in Syria, you – in Iraq” – that describes a possible strategy in the fight against the Islamists Lukyanov.
Hafez Assad 2.0
Opportunity establish bridges with the West – it is an opportunity for Putin to get out of the isolation in which he found himself after the Ukrainian crisis. Even if the relationship between Putin and European countries and the United States will resume in full, Russian can be situational US ally in the fight against the common evil. Thus, for example, was for the United States and Great Britain Soviet Union in a common struggle against Nazi Germany. And in 1990, a member of the American coalition against the Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, became his worst enemy, then-Syrian President Hafez al-Assad. He himself used the situation to establish relations with the United States.
However, the ex- Deputy Foreign Minister, an expert in international politics Kunadze George believes that the new “anti-Hitler coalition” of the West with Russia will not create. “Russia has its vision, its customers in Syria and, therefore, differences remain,” – said Kunadze.
Ex-diplomat situation in Syria resembles anti-Hitler coalition after the war . “When the debate on the future of Eastern Europe, all the coalition fell apart soon,” – said the expert. According to him, Ukraine “can not factor out” in relations between Russia and the West.
However, Putin has tried during a meeting of the “Big Twenty” to demonstrate that it is ready to compromise on Ukraine saying that Russia was ready to restructure the debt of $ 3 billion, Russia gave the money to the friendly President Viktor Yanukovych. At the same time, Putin showed colleagues at “twenty” still whip: photos from space, which were shown by militants in oil-trading scheme. He noted that trade finance is the oil and of the countries that are included in the G20. The fact that oil from LIH trade and representatives of Bashar al-Assad, the Russian president was silent.
Britain to the rescue
During the summit, Putin held talks with the British premier. They, too, it was to join forces in the fight against terrorism, said Peskov. “The need for cooperation in this field, understanding is no alternative to cooperation multilateralism in the fight against terrorism” – said Peskov.
Negotiations with the United Kingdom on the issue of the fight against terrorism are essential – in Syria is the main after the US member Coalition and years, and sometimes the only ally of the US in international operations.
The fact that Cameron and Putin’s meeting is important in and of itself – the sides talked about the normalization of relations. It is known that the relationship between the two countries are at a very low level, it happened because of the occurrence of the Crimea to Russia. Russian Ambassador to the UK Alexander Yakovenko said earlier that they are being frozen.
The main contradiction between Russia and Britain in Syria – the relation to the figure of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The British Prime Minister is an active critic of the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and believes that it should not play a role in the transition of power in Syria.
«We have differences with the Russians is largely due to the fact that they have done enough to destroy not related to LIH opposition, which could take part in the future of Syria” – Cameron said at a news conference before meeting with Putin. It is unclear whether the meeting of the leaders of Britain and Russia turn into practical cooperation of both countries in the joint struggle against the LIH, but such a possibility, said Head of the Department for Strategic Assessments Center for Situational Analysis, RAS Sergei Utkin.
Utkin believes that the convergence may contribute to the fact that Britain itself is preparing for a referendum against membership in the EU.
«Even the question itself makes its relations with other leading EU countries rather strained. Under these conditions, a Russian swear they are not to hand, in spite of all odds. In general, it seems that the talk about the “Russian threat” not cause a response from the electorate, preoccupied with quite different issues, “- said the expert. According to Utkin, in such a situation “can benefit from the British-Russian relations that due to political and economic weight of Russia is possible.
Be ready, Your Majesty
The main intrigue of the meeting can be considered a meeting between Putin and the King of Saudi Arabia, Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud, which was held behind closed doors. The Kremlin said that the two leaders discussed the Syrian settlement, as well as bilateral relations.
A member of the coalition the United States to Syria, Saudi Arabia set up more tightly against the Bashar al-Assad, and supports the most radical Islamist groups fighting against his regime. Saudi Arabia is often blamed for the fact that it has initiated the establishment of “Al-Qaeda”, but not “Islamic state” and “Al-Nusra Front”, which is fighting in Syria. It is known that the LIH was originally a branch of the same, “Al-Qaeda” in Iraq, and at the beginnings of the “Al Qaeda” was deceased citizen of this country, Osama bin Laden, who, however, was an implacable enemy of the Saudi monarchy.
According to experts, Saudi Arabia is difficult to imagine in any coalition that includes Iran, as both states are bitter rivals and consider Syria as a kind of chessboard.
«Both countries see themselves the leaders of the Islamic world “- describes the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, a political scientist and former diplomat Vladimir Akhmedov. However, common ground Russia and Saudi Arabia in the matter LIH still can be found, because the Islamists in the long term threaten the Arabian monarchies no less than other countries in the region. Their goal – to wipe the Saudi dynasty and free Mecca and Medina – the sacred shrine for all Muslims.
While Saudi Arabia is not an alliance, proposed by Russia, and enlists the aid of other centers of power. And it is not the United States, with which the monarchy fell out because of the softening of the US position towards Iran.
According to the director of the Institute of Religion and Politics Alexander Ignatenko, Riyadh relies on its satellites – Sudan, Yemen Somalia and other allies, such as Egypt and Pakistan. Saudi Arabia financed the latter’s nuclear program. “Perhaps there is a secret agreement that nuclear developments will ensure the interests of Saudi Arabia”, – notes Ignatenko.
Among those who will be able to protect the Saudis in the event of a conflict aimed directly against This country seems to have turned, and France. At least the improvement of relations between Riyadh and Paris coincided with the announcement that Saudi Arabia will provide itself nuclear-missile umbrella.
Given the different interests of states in the region that are involved in military operations in Syria , an international coalition will create a very difficult, but experts say that Russia does not lose hope and keep the door of those who are willing to join the coalition, or at least start to work.
The main trump card, which is put forward by Russian diplomats at the talks with Western partners – is that Russia has a mandate to conduct combat operations, taking advantage of the official invitation of the legitimate Government of the country. Experts suggest that, using this card, Russia will seek the mandate of the UN Security Council for the operation in Syria under the auspices of the UN. Such precedents already happened: after US troops entered Iraq, the country has received a UN mandate retroactively.
«Some states not that move in the direction of the coalition, but we can say, drift, – says Ignatenko. – Among them, I would have, for example, Egypt, which, of course, does not directly enter into the coalition. But if, let’s deal rotate so that some things will be carried out under the auspices of the UN Security Council, Egypt their military units necessarily in any international force will provide ».
No comments:
Post a Comment