How will the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh? – BBC Russian

Image copyright RIA Novosti

Image caption A new round of conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh again raised the civilian infrastructure

In the Nagorno-Karabakh, a few days did not abate military clashes between the armed forces of the breakaway republic (it supports Armenia) and the army of Azerbaijan.

The victims of the shelling in dozens of people on both sides, including civilians. Parties to the conflict accuse each other of escalating violence

On Tuesday, it was announced a truce

BBC Russian Service said military experts:.. What will the opposition

?

Alexander Goltz, a military commentator, “Daily journal”, visiting scholar at the University of Uppsala (Sweden):

The situation is uncertain, and to predict its development is difficult scenario. But I believe that the most likely conflict is localized. To get it back in a frozen state, it is necessary to put pressure on both warring parties that, in fact, is currently being done.

In addition to the diplomatic efforts being made by the participants of the Minsk Group, there are also military factors influencing the development of conflict. The relief of the battle area is that serious to succeed in the attack can only result in a blitzkrieg. Fast war, as I understand it, did not work. The parties have remained virtually the same positions as occupied before the collision. No army is not decisive superiority in military equipment or manpower. And, if in the coming days will not start to operate aircraft, it is likely that the conflict will go on.

it seems to me that this explosion of hostilities in Nagorno Karabakh leads some line under the diplomacy pursued by Russia for several years. The Kremlin acted as Britain in the XIX century: arming both sides, explaining that in this way preserves the

the balance of power in the region, Alexander Golts

In general, the technical equipment of the Azerbaijani army is stronger. In recent years Azerbaijan has sent a significant portion of its oil revenues to rearm. Contracts with Russia amounted to two billion dollars. And Russia is happy to give a good income goes there quite modern military equipment

As for Armenia, here acted completely different mechanism:. Russia gave Armenia the money to Armenia on the money purchased from the Russian military technique. Accordingly, we see the result of a much more modest.

On the Nagorno-Karabakh, in this context does not make sense to say, as this self-proclaimed republic is not in the broad sense of international relations. However, in such a war it is very difficult to compare the ability of the parties, based on the quantity and quality of military equipment. Of great importance are the ability to effectively use this technique, fighting spirit, knowledge of the terrain. I can not say that as a result of massive deliveries of Russian weapons, the Azerbaijani army has acquired some new quality.

It seems to me that this explosion of hostilities in Nagorno Karabakh leads some line under the diplomacy pursued by Russia for several years . The Kremlin acted as Britain in the XIX century:. Arming both sides, explaining that in this way preserves the balance of forces in the region

It would make sense, as long as (within the same of realpolitik XIX century) I not started operating yet another player – Turkey. And here Russia is in a rather unpleasant situation. There is no escaping the fact that Armenia is our ally in the CSTO. According to the letter of the Collective Security Treaty, if the war goes on the territory of Armenia, Russia with its armed forces should act in support of Armenia and start a war with Azerbaijan, which is long and diligently arming. And in Azerbaijan – Turkey. It is this disposition is not XXI, and the XIX century shows the limitations of the Kremlin diplomacy

Victor Murakhovski, chief editor of “Arsenal of the fatherland”, a member of the expert council of the college of the Military-Industrial Commission of Russia:.

I think a full-scale war will not. Just when I look at the group of forces concentrated on both sides of the front line, I do not see that Azerbaijan, for example, focus some offensive grouping of operational scale, which could seriously affect the course and outcome of the conflict. And, similarly, by the NKR too, no configuration, demonstrating the offensive problems.

So while it comes down to local clashes, shootings of artillery and multiple launch rocket systems. But decisive action, neither side has not taken.

This does not exclude mutual attacks, including the cities and towns on both sides. It is a mutual threat. And Armenia, and Azerbaijan has multiple launch rocket systems “Tornado”, operational-tactical missile complexes “Tochka-U”. Moreover, Armenia has a Soviet tactical complexes of P-300. And Azerbaijan has, in contrast to Armenia, there is still strike aircraft, for example, attack aircraft “Su-25″.

And now, it is clear that Armenia suffered a heavy defeat. And continue to clash in the current format, to wage a war of attrition – is not an option for Armenia

Pavel Felgenhauer

In this sense, the two sides in their military technical capabilities are about equal. They are quite comparable in terms of its potential.

There is a certain quantitative and qualitative (in certain types of weapons) have the advantage of Azerbaijan. But talk about the decisive advantage that will allow to develop the offensive on a large enough depth to the operational output goals, for example, on the Karabakh border, and Armenia can not.

Pavel Felgenhauer, a military commentator ” Novaya Gazeta “:

The main causes of this war, internal political in Armenia and Azerbaijan. In principle, the solution to domestic problems, such as the union of public opinion, full-scale war was not necessary. But it is very difficult to stop now, when the real escalation of hostilities and mutual blows applied.

At first glance, between the armies of the two countries, there is an approximate equality. But in fact, the technological gap between them terrifying. Baku went to war on a much higher level of technology. The Azerbaijani army has purchased drums and reconnaissance drones, which are used for the application of precision strikes throughout the depth of the Armenian Defense. And in response to the Armenians fired on the area.

They will soon realize that their key installations are under the impact blow, and answer the same, they can not. And now, it is clear that Armenia suffered a heavy defeat. And continue to clash in the current format, to wage a war of attrition – is not an option for Armenia

Then there are several possible scenarios.. First, in the region to establish a more or less solid truce with the Russian and American pressure. Second, Armenia will have to start a full-fledged offensive to end the war (but it is unclear what will then be the outcome). Third, start a full-scale Russian intervention on the side of Armenia, which eliminates the technological gap of two armies

It should be noted that the final defeat of Armenia to Russia is barely acceptable.. This will all be seen as Moscow’s loss of strategic control over the South Caucasus as a whole. But Armenia is not obvious defeat for Moscow – there live irrelevant memories that Azerbaijanis do not know how to fight

.