“Taliban”: the political consequences of the death of Mullah Omar – IA REGNUM

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Kabul, August 1, 2015, 18:33 – REGNUM In the last days of one of the most talked about news in the media was the death of the leader of the movement “Taliban” Mohammed Omar. How to transfer IA REGNUM , the information about his death on July 29 unveiled a TV channel “Al Jazeera”, citing sources in the government and intelligence Afghanistan. A similar report published by the British broadcasting company “Bi-bi-si.” And, according to her information, the leader of the “Taliban and » More died two or three years ago. Later, however, a source close to the movement, told “Voice of America” ​​that Omar is alive. I made a statement, Taliban spokesman Qari Yousef Ahmadi. According to him, which resulted in Sky News, the leader of the Taliban “is alive and continues to lead the movement.” Later, the Taliban still reported the death of their leader, that, according to the analyst of the Center for Modern Afghanistan Studies Andrei Serenko, “will be to move this political disaster”, since “insurgents, warlords, and the rank and file can swear allegiance to the group” Islamic State ” which has long demanded that the “Taliban” recognition of the death of Mullah Omar. Earlier, Afghan and Pakistani Taliban swore allegiance to Mullah Omar, and it was a factor that prevents them pereprisyagnut, such as Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, leader of the IG. This can lead to a sharp increase in the number of IG militants in Pakistan and Afghanistan. In addition, it is possible, of course, and the split in the “Taliban” – there is even a possibility that in its current form, the movement will cease to exist ».

In a joint statement, the Governing Council of the movement and the family members of the spiritual leader of the Taliban, released by Afghan media does not say the exact time and place of death of the mullahs, but noted that he had died as a result of the disease. “It is clear that Mullah Omar no longer and we need to preserve what he has given us and continue his path,” – say the authors of the statement, stressing that the leader of the movement left behind a “streamlined structure”. It says nothing about the successor to Mullah Omar. Meanwhile, inter-Arab TV channel “Al Arabiya”, citing its own sources reported that the new leader of the movement is chosen deputy of Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, who is actually the number two man in the movement “Taliban”. In the administration of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani said that efforts to end the protracted struggle for control of the country, should be continued. “The Afghan government believes that the grounds for peace talks, now more than ever, and therefore calls on all armed opposition groups to take advantage of this opportunity and join the peace process,” – said in a statement the administration.

In turn, a senior Pakistani intelligence on the condition of anonymity, called the information about the death of Omar rumors aimed at disrupting the peace talks with the rebel government of Afghanistan by the Taliban. In the opinion of some Afghan experts, the death of Mullah Omar was involved in the Pakistani ISI ISI (Eng. Inter-Services Intelligence). They recall that before the probable death of Omar’s Taliban in 2013 were aimed primarily at the overthrow of the Afghan government. They argued that “until Afghanistan will not leave the last foreign military, of any talks with illegitimate authorities in Kabul are not out of the question.” But in June 2013, t. e. two months before the presumed death of Omar, the Taliban under the patronage of Pakistan opened its representative office in Qatar and declared their readiness to negotiate only with the Americans. This shows that Pakistan was against these negotiations because authorized to negotiate and Taipei Yeah Mullah Baradar were not at odds with Islamabad. And today, when a group of Taliban negotiators headed by Second Vice Mullah Omar ISI protégé Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, Pakistan hopes to turn the negotiations in favor of the part of the Taliban, which is under the patronage of Pakistan. (Taliban is considered non-uniform group, consisting of several factions and has no defined structure). In such circumstances, according to Afghan experts, talks with the Taliban, and therefore behind them by Pakistani intelligence agencies, are meaningless.

Let us recall the initiative talks with the “Taliban” Afghan President Ashraf Ghani I delivered in February 2015, saying that now formed the best conditions for the peace process, than in all the 36 years of continuous wars on Afghanistan. However, until recently, the Taliban refused to formal negotiations with the government insisting on the complete withdrawal of foreign troops from the country. Some Afghan observers have linked the death of Mullah Omar to the changes that have emerged in recent years in the political situation in Afghanistan. According to them, time is working against the Taliban. Before their success to “the east” A number of factors, first of all, the closeness of the Pakistani border, and armed opposition bases on the territory of the Pashtun areas of Pakistan. This created a short communication with the “home front”, the possibility of retreat abroad and support from the Pakistani Taliban in the border battles. Driven from their homes in Pakistan’s North Waziristan province, they moved to the north of Afghanistan, where they were, as they say, from the frying pan into the fire. Who recently returned from Turkey after treatment twice Hero of Afghanistan, the first vice president of Afghanistan, Abdul Rashid Dostum, a well-known, in particular the fact that at the time of the Taliban planted on a stake, given located in the northern provinces of the country to the Taliban week to surrender and join the peace process. He said that he personally prepared to go to the front to fight the militants ‘Taliban’, if they do not stop resisting the authorities. At the same time the governor of northern Balkh province, Atta Mohammad Noor, said the launch of joint operations to clean up the northern regions of the country from insurgents.

According to experts, the destruction of commanders and political leaders of the “Taliban” No one on the agenda shot. It should be noted that in May 2011, the former commander of the international coalition forces in southwestern Afghanistan, US General Richard Mills claimed that after the elimination of Osama bin Laden’s next target of US Special Forces will be exactly Mullah Omar. The physical elimination of the leaders of “Taliban” is necessary in order to create a more promising political conditions it is likely to separate talks with the leaders of the Western coalition militias. Mullah Omar emerged as the implacable opponent of the US and NATO. In this capacity, he continued to maintain its political status. In order for the movement “Taliban” (since it has proved its viability and difficult to destroy) has become less radical and more prone to compromise, it is necessary, first of all, create the conditions for a change of political generations in the leadership of the organization. Rotation of the Taliban elite in the current environment is only possible through the physical destruction of generations of “fierce mullahs” Omar, Dadullah, Usman, and the like. Before you find people within the “Taliban” who are ready to sit down at the negotiating table with the official Kabul and NATO forces, it is necessary to clean up “cohort irreconcilable” and release their posts for “new Taliban”, to which belongs to the Pakistani Taliban chief negotiator Akhtar Mohammad Mansour protege.

According to reports, will go to the press from the sources of pro-Taliban circles, the successor to Mullah Omar’s candidacy was considered at a meeting of the movement’s leadership in the Pakistani city of Quetta. It is reported that after the announcement of the head of Mansur “Taliban” event defiantly left the number of workers movement, including the brother of the late Mullah Abdul Manan and the eldest son of Mullah Yaqub. Together with them, thus they expressed their protest leaders, known as Mullah Qayyum Zakir Sheikh Habibullah. Is it because they had known the lowdown Mansour? Why is the information about the death was made public only today? It is now finally disintegrate “Taliban” or join an “Islamic state”? Whether the death benefit from the authoritative leader forces wanting to disrupt the peace process in Afghanistan? And anyway, how events will unfold in Afghanistan now? The answer we will know soon. In the meantime, the situation in the information space becomes more and more confusing.