Without roundabouts
In the second round of the election of the governor of the Irkutsk region the KPRF Duma deputy Sergei Levchenko scored 56.52%, Acting Governor Sergey Eroschenko – only 41.43% ( on the results of processing 97% of ballots). “There were no carousels or stuffing – nothing. So we got the net result of the candidate of the government “, – stated the source of RBC, close to the leadership of Staff head of the region.
Compared with the first round, which took place on September 13 increased turnout – if two weeks ago Lots They came to 29%, in this Sunday voted 37% of voters of the Irkutsk region. Most notably the turnout rose in Irkutsk – amounted to almost 39% instead of 23% in the first round. It was in Irkutsk, as explained earlier interlocutors RBC, close to the Kremlin and the leadership of the region, the most powerful position Levchenko. Accordingly, the balance between the candidates, too, has changed dramatically: in the first round Eroschenko scored 49.6% against 36.6% in Levchenko. Thus, Eroschenko were just 0.4% to win.
During the day exit polls, which have been at the disposal of RBC source close to the governor’s headquarters, demonstrating strong leadership Levchenko. In Irkutsk, the result exceeds the result of Acting Governor about 2.5 times, the rest of the gap is a few percent.
In the “United Russia” admitted defeat. “It was fair, competitive elections. We recognize the victory of the candidate from the Communist Party Sergei Levchenko and congratulate him, – said the secretary of the General Council of the party Sergei Neverov. – Our candidate was less convincing, in particular, believe he failed to get the support of the inhabitants of the city of Irkutsk ».
How was the campaign
The powers Eroschenko expire only in 2017, but in May he was prematurely retired and receiving the consent of President Vladimir Putin, was appointed interim head of the region (announcing early voting, the government relieves the period 2016-2018, when elections are held in the State Duma and for the presidency). Then the Kremlin based on the current ratings Eroschenko – about 60%, the source said earlier RBC, close to the presidential administration. According to him, the command of the governor also believes that victory is assured, and so before the first round is actually decided not to conduct an active campaign.
«Eroschenko need to have at least spread the word about their achievements. And he just kept working to the rhythm of the head region, self-supporting elite, primarily the security forces. As a result, its ranking is not only growing, but fell, “- said the source RBK. As a result, in the end of July, another source close to the Kremlin, reported a high probability of a second round.
After 13 September, when Eroschenko failed to win, the governor and the federal center is partly active. The region came to prominent representatives of the “United Russia” – Secretary of the General Council Sergei Neverov, chairman of the supporters of Olga Batalina, deputy chairman of the Duma’s security committee, Alexander Khinshtein. Last made a series of high-profile statements criticizing Levchenko and entrepreneurs who, according to him, provided that financial assistance in exchange for future benefits.
On the other hand, the country’s top officials support Eroschenko not provided. Putin met with the heads of other regions where elections were held, called the two finalists of the Irkutsk election “worthy.” Himself Eroschenko continued to ignore the public formats, for example, he did not go to the debate – Levchenko had the opportunity to one speaker in the broadcast channel “Russia 1».
«Representatives of the management and headquarters of” United Russia “did everything we could, before the second round. But the problems were initially so run that change the situation, apparently, it was not in our power, “- says one of United Russia.
According to political scientist Alexander Kanev, the fact that United Russia has lost the first round, I motivate people to believe in the possibility of change and come to the sites. “The total power technology – to create an atmosphere of disbelief that we can win. However, the second round of the resources were already other candidates. Rate the city came and voted for Eroschenko periphery, where the turnout in the first round was higher than the average for the region “, – says the expert.
intra splits
The interlocutor of RBC in the Kremlin, two sources close to the leadership of the presidential administration, and a source close to the leadership of the region, agree that the root cause failure Eroschenko become intra-elite conflicts Irkutsk region.
The representatives of the construction business at the end of last year, held in Irkutsk rally against the government. “Eroschenko joined with construction companies in the conflict in the first place with the head of the company” New City “Alexander Bitarova. They decided to teach him a lesson, supporting Levchenko, “- said the source close to the Kremlin. Interlocutor in the headquarters Eroschenko confirmed the conflict with the business, claiming, however, that the owners refused to fulfill social obligations. A source in the Kremlin confirmed that Bitarov, according to him, has funded Levchenko. The deputy chairman of the CPRF Central Committee Vladimir Kashin told RBC that the core funding of candidate campaigns carried out from the central committee of the party.
«It is not just about Bitarova. A lot of local businesses supported Levchenko. Without it, he would never have won, “- emphasizes another source close to the Kremlin.
In addition to business support Levchenko could provide the former mayor of Irkutsk Viktor Kondrashov. In May, members of city council elected a new mayor Dmitry Berdnikov. “It was to address Eroschenko. A man (Berdnikov) a day not worked in the system of public administration. It is wrong to dispose of the resource. As a result, Eroschenko clearly lost Irkutsk. And if Kondrashov left – Irkutsk would remain for him “- says a source in the Kremlin RBC. Quarreled governor and the head of the Legislative Assembly Lyudmila Berlin, which this year also left the post.
Demonstration benign competition
In addition to the contradictions in the regional elites and weak election campaign on losing Eroschenko played the desire of the presidential administration to establish a good example “of competition, transparency and legitimacy,” said political consultant Valentin Bianchi. “On the eve of elections to the Duma administration, it was important to show that the candidate is not from the ruling party can win if he has the experience and support in the region”, – says Bianchi. In his opinion, United Russia, came to support Eroschenko, was the installation not to make overt fraud. On the other hand, said Bianchi, the administration is always an option to say two or three years, that the governor of the Communist Party is unable to cope.
One of the recent successes of the opposition was the election in the Ryazan region in 2004 – then the representative of ” Motherland “Georgy Shpak, United Russia won Igor Morozov, says political analyst Alexei Makarkin. But the results of the elections in the Irkutsk region to better compare with the election of the second half of the 1990s, when a number of areas the Communists won, he said. “Then,” red “governor quickly became” pink “, that is, began to negotiate with the government. The same is true here: Levchenko long been integrated into the regional and federal elite, it is not revolutionary, no, he will negotiate with the Kremlin “- says Makarkin.
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