Friday, May 8, 2015

Exit polls suggest the winning party, David Cameron – Kommersant

In the UK, continues to count the results of parliamentary elections that advance dubbed one of the most unpredictable in the history of the country. It was assumed that the gap between the Conservatives led by David Cameron and Labour, headed by Ed Miliband, will not exceed 1%. However, exit polls show that the Conservative Party can significantly strengthen its position, while the Labour Party over the threatened loss of more than 30 seats.

At that moment, when the clock on the tower of Elizabeth II (colloquially known as Big Ben), struck ten in the evening, the TV “Bi-bi-si” Live released the results of its exit poll. They surprised everyone. According to a survey of 22 thousand. British emerged from the polling stations, the Conservative Party could count on 316 seats out of 650 (plus 14 seats compared with the results of the 2010 elections), the opposition Labor Party – 239 seats (minus 17), and the Scottish National Party with 58 mandates (plus 52) claimed third place. The Liberal Democrats, who in the past were part of the government of the ruling coalition, will only be given ten seats (minus 46). For “working majority” needed for the sole decision-making, the Conservatives did not have ten votes.

Throughout the election campaign, and even the day before the election, sociologists from a dozen companies all agreed that the gap between the two leading parties will be minimal. Final opinion polls have shown that it does not exceed 1%. The data about who is the leader, disagreed. At the expense of the majority of fellow premier Cameron could count on a larger number of people (275-280 versus 265-270 in the Labour Party). But the possibility of triumph, such as that evidenced by the exit poll is not considered one.

discouraged in the studio “Bi-bi-si” were both presenters and guests. In particular, the former Liberal Democrat leader Paddy Ashdown promised to eat his hat if the results of the exit poll in the end will coincide with the official data. They do not believe in defeat and Labour. However, closer to morning television channel Sky News, citing its sources in the party leadership said that if these exit polls are confirmed, the party leader Ed Miliband has today announced his resignation.

According to British experts, the influence on the mood of voters could give the campaign – even though fluctuations in the ratings, which were fixed by sociologists, were insignificant. “These sociological services disappoint conservatives who hoped for the campaign to improve their positions,” – said “Kommersant” on the day of voting editor London Evening Standard Martin Bentham. At the same time, he said, the party of David Cameron looked more convincing when discussing the economy, as during the reign of the current cabinet ministers on a number of parameters (eg, unemployment), the situation in this area has improved. For Labour, according to Mr. Benthama still trail stretches mistakes of the government of Gordon Brown (2007-2010). In addition, the source of “Kommersant” said a voter distrust of the ministers of the “shadow government” Labour.

Vote counting continues. Preliminary election results will be known within a few hours.

A correspondent of “Kommersant FM” Andrew Ostalsky London : «final results yet. The latest: confirmed 288 seats in the House of Commons for the Conservatives, and a significant loss of 218 Labour seats, which means they lose, I think, 19 seats compared with the results of the elections. This, of course, a complete sensation. No one predicted such a result, it is absolutely all professionals in the polls, all the polls done by the most reputable organizations that until recently showed that the Conservatives and the Labour Party will gain about the same number of votes and the same number of seats. It’s not the same thing, but, nevertheless, would be difficult and the parliament, and political bargaining, coalition. But none of this is happening, there was something quite different, totally unexpected for all. Conservatives win, and it is likely be able to form a single-party government, even coalition partners may not need them. ” Read more

Pavel Tarasenko


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