Nabiullina named two possible scenarios for Russia’s economic development – RBC

The Chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina

Photo: TASS

The Chairman of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina at the International Banking Congress in St. Petersburg named two possible scenarios for the development of the Russian economy – both positive and negative, reports RBC. In the first case, according to her, there will be a reorientation of the economy, will be carried out structural reforms to develop the manufacturing sector, the services sector, increase productivity.

With a negative scenario, the head of the Central Bank, oil prices start to rise again it will allow the economy to grow by 1-2% a year and “will give us a reason to relax.” She noted that to expect that the economy will pull exports are no longer necessary. “Oil prices have risen, but even at stabilizing the situation, they will be lower than the last five years,” – she said. She also added that the economy will not dopoluchaet $ 150-170 billion a year because of the changed pricing environment.

At the same time, according to the Central Bank, capital adequacy of the banking sector in Russia, even when oil prices fall to $ 40 per barrel to exceed 10%. “By early May, the value of bank assets exceeded 72 trillion rubles. Despite the difficult external conditions, the economic slowdown, the banking sector as a whole shows stability, and the stress test confirms that taking into account the recapitalization measures, the adequacy of the total capital of the banking sector, even under severe scenarios, such as the decline in oil prices to 40 dollars per barrel to exceed our regulatory minimum of 10% “, – quotes its RIA Novosti.

According to Nabiullina, despite the fact that the economic indicators were better than forecasts of experts, it is too early to say that the crisis passed events.

In March the Central Bank presented two possible scenarios of macroeconomic development. Basic and risk scenario originate from different forecasts of oil prices. The first assumes that the price of Urals will be held at the level of $ 55 per barrel. in 2015 and then start to gradually increase to $ 70 by 2017. The risk scenario the oil price will remain at $ 40 for 2015-2017.

According to this forecast, the Central Bank expects to reduce imports by nearly 30% in 2015 (compared with a forecast for December 2014 when the regulator expected 10% decline in imports). According to Nabiullina, the risks of cooling of the Russian economy will continue in 2016. “Data for January and leading indicators for February, primarily business sentiment index, suggest that the economic situation continues to deteriorate, and this trend may continue until the I quarter of 2016″, – she said (quoted by TASS).