On Saturday, US President Barack Obama signed an order to lift economic sanctions against Iran. The head of the EU diplomacy Federica Mogherini also said that from that day to Iran removed all international and unilateral sanctions. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, thanked God and “patient people” of the country for the lifting of international sanctions.
On his Twitter page Rouhani called the nuclear deal “glorious victory”.
Now, the Islamic Republic of Iran to gain access to frozen the financial assets of about $ 50 billion. In addition, the lifting of sanctions means lifting the embargo on the purchase of Iranian oil. Also, Iran will get access to foreign investment, banned because of sanctions.
The sanctions against Iran have been linked to atomic enrichment program, which has intensified Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (President of Iran from August 2005 to August 2013). However, his successor Rouhani was able to find a compromise with the West. In July last year, Iran has pledged to cut its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions (during the action which, according to various estimates, Iran’s economy has lost between $ 160 billion to $ 180 billion).
On Saturday in Vienna, Iran reported to the International Atomic Energy Agency.
«Iran has fulfilled all the requirements of the agreement on the nuclear program,” – said IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano.
The joint comprehensive action plan (HPMS), which Iran and the UN Security Council and Germany agreed last summer meant reducing the number of Iranian centrifuges at uranoobogatitelnyh enterprises by two-thirds (they will remain around 6000), and the degree of enrichment of uranium over the next 15 years should not exceed 3.67%. In addition, Iran, in accordance with the HPMS should abandon nuclear weapons development. The Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation reported that the interaction of “Rosatom” outside the country exported all provided SVP amount of enriched uranium.
«normalization of relations with the West brings Iran into another league players – commented Professor School of Economics, a political analyst Nikolai Petrov. – From the “rogue state” Iran turns into a respectable regional leader ».
According to the political scientist, the process began when the agreement between Iran and the West has been concluded. “And now in the confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the balance of power has changed,” – said Petrov.
A key issue in the oil.
Iran last year warned that after the lifting of sanctions as soon as possible ready to release to the world market 0.5 million barrels per day of additional oil (currently Iran exports about 1 million barrels a day, oil is in the Asia-Pacific region, mainly in China and India). And this despite the fact that now the prevalence of supply over demand of about 2 million barrels a day.
The representative of Iran through OPEC Mehdi Asali on Saturday confirmed that Iran does not intend to limit the production of oil and plans to enter the dosanktsionny the level of exports – 2 million barrels a day.
By the way, even before it became known about the lifting of sanctions, RIA “Novosti” reported that
delegation of the British-Dutch Shell and France’s Total arrived in Tehran for talks with the National Iranian Oil Company.
The experts of the oil market have repeatedly noted that” Iran risks “already included in the price of oil . Since the formal conclusion of the agreement became known last summer, quotes, this factor has played.
«In current prices reflected only partially – says partner Rusenergy Michael Krutikhin. – But the pressure on the stock lifting of sanctions will still ».
According to the expert, this will play a role not only to the fact that Iran release to the market additional volumes of oil, which will increase the offer, but the fact that Iran, in an attempt to regain market niches will start dumping.
However, this is only a temporary driver for oil prices. “Infusion” Iran will be offset by reduced production in the United States – says Krutikhin. – It is up to the American production is now dependent on fluctuations of world prices ».
Now the North Sea oil Brent, which is tied to the price of Russian Urarls, on the London Stock Exchange ICE traded at $ 29.1 per barrel. US WTI on the New York Stock Exchange NYMEX – $ 29,6 (data at the end of the trading day on Friday).
However, the very possibility of a large-scale release of Iranian oil in doubt. “Do not give in to euphoria and exaggerated Iran’s current capacity in the oil sector, – says member of the advisory council of the Union of Oil and Gas Russia Eldar concerned. – The actual amount of “black gold” that the Iranians are further ready to promptly deliver to foreign markets is unlikely to exceed 300 thousand. Barrels a day »
statements that exports may be increased by 1 million barrels for six months, a year, it is estimated Kasayeva very optimistic and unlikely to be fulfilled in practice.
Kasai gives the example of Iraq and Libya, which after the fall of the oil industry in 2003 and 2011 respectively, took much more time on her recovery than stated by local officials persons.
However, the expert also predicts that the lifting of sanctions will inevitably affect the price.
«Perhaps in the short term, the price for” barrel “will drop to $ 25,” – said Kasai.
By the way, the price of the Russian authorities intend to establish a new economic stress scenario. However, as said on Saturday Russia’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, broadcast program “Vesti on Saturday”, when the price per barrel at $ 25, the Russian budget in the current year will receive less than 3 trillion rubles of income.
«But Russia as well as other players are ready for this scenario, as the Iranian factor was known oil exporters for a long time – said Kasai. – In this context, the negative market reaction to the “free energy” of Iran will be short-term, as international traders and speculators have long been intimidated by the Iranian market abundance of raw materials ».
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