January 16 will be held in Taiwan at the same time the presidential and parliamentary elections. The ruling Nationalist Party (Kuomintang, KMT), which after losing the civil war in 1949 turned the island into an anti-communist stronghold, in this election, according to opinion polls, is waiting for the defeat of the Democratic Progressive Party (Mintszindan, IDC), which, paradoxically, criticized the KMT for excessive sympathy for Beijing. Reduce by two old enemies are pushing many young activists Party, generated a wave of global protest 2011-2014 period. They do not trust the “old” politicians and want to take their place on the political map of the island. In addition to issues of self-determination to play an important role and the economy: in 2015, the country teetered on the brink of recession, as exports and imports do not grow past three years.
The last eight years have been a time of unchallenged dominance of the Conservative Party KMT, which had on the results of elections in 2012 in addition to the presidency, most (64 seats) in the parliament. In this election, according to opinion polls, the KMT is waiting for a crushing defeat: its presidential candidate, gaining about 23%, and for the party itself ready to vote about 18%.
“The voters are not satisfied with weak economic growth, the stood at the same level wages, unemployment is palpable – said” Kommersant “the expert of the Center for East Asian and SCO MGIMO Igor Denisov Those dividends that the administration promised in connection c development of contacts with the mainland, the population is almost not felt. ” During the eight years of the KMT Youth unemployment rose to 14%, and the salary of the graduate college is around humiliating “Asian tiger” $ 650 a month. Island crippled reconstruction of the economy of mainland China, which is beginning to replace the traditional article Taiwanese exports (primarily electronics) own products. Another important issue – the level of rapprochement with mainland China. IDC stands for maximum political and economic distance from Beijing. KMT also believes that the future of Taiwan lies in the strengthening of cultural ties with the mainland close, even while maintaining political independence.
Polls give compares himself with Angela Merkel, 59-year-old candidate for the presidency of the MCD Cai Inven 44%, and its faction in the parliament – 31% of the seats. From 2000 to 2008, IDC has already been in power on the island, but her reign was remembered mainly the deterioration of relations with the mainland and corruption scandals. In 2008, after the return to power of the KMT leader Chen Shui-bian went to the IDC is not the opposition, but in prison on corruption charges. Over the past eight years, the party changed its leadership, and, apparently, she was able to clear his name before the voters. In case of victory Tsai Inven become the first woman – the head of the country, “the Chinese world,” including China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao and Singapore.
KMT addition unimportant economic results undermine internal strife. Incoming from the KMT in the “blue coalition” party Tsinmindan put forward their own presidential candidate than voters pulled and destroyed the chances of the two parties of the presidency. “The KMT candidate James Sung Tsinmindana considered schismatic – said” b “Tamkang University, Taiwan Professor Alexander Pisarev.- At the time he was in the KMT, but came out of it and began an independent career politician.”
Partner of the WDC for the opposition “Green Coalition” – Taiwan Solidarity Union – did not nominate its Chairman and thus ensure victory Tsai Inven.
In addition, this time in addition to the political struggle mastodons joined a protest youth. In 2014, she was part of the “Movement of sunflowers” fought against excessive rapprochement between Taiwan and the mainland catches the Legislative Yuan (local parliament), and sought to stop the construction of nuclear power plants. In early 2015, she formed several batches. The largest of them, the “new force”, now goes to the polls under the leadership of 42-year-old civil activist Juan gotcha. As a newly established party “New Force” is not yet able to fight for the presidency, but, according to polls, claims to be 7% of the votes in parliament. “My goal – to make a marginal KMT party and at the same time does not give an advantage to capture the IDC” – said Gocha Juan. He also promised to fight for the privatization of the KMT, which in 2014 has once again been recognized as the world’s richest party with the capital of $ 892 billion.
A separate plot adds that past board MCD remember strained relations between the island and the mainland. This, in turn, causes the nervous politicians in the United States, sponsors of the island. However, the chief editor of Thinking Taiwan Michael Cole believes that these fears are groundless. “We Cai Inven no secret plan to drag the United States into a war with China to realize the dream of de jure independence – said in her mind on.- Taiwan is already independent.”
Russia, like most countries, has no diplomatic relations with Taiwan and recognizes it as part of China. Economic and cultural cooperation is carried out through the Moscow-Taipei Coordination Commission. According to the data of Taiwan, direct trade between Russia and Taiwan in 2015 totaled $ 3.5 billion. Russia buys from Taiwan’s electronics and engineering products, and exports to the island mainly energy, metallurgical products, and chemical industries. In Moscow for the upcoming change of power on the island is easy, it is possible that in case of winning the WDC focused on diversifying the island’s economy, trade of the Russian Federation and Taiwan can gain additional momentum.
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