3 January the head of the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs Adel Al-Dzhubeyr announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Iran because of the attack on the embassy of the kingdom after the execution in Saudi Arabia’s Shiite preacher Nimrah Nimrah al. Following the Riyadh similar decisions taken Bahrain and Sudan. United Arab Emirates (UAE) reduced the mutual diplomatic representation with Iran to the level of chargé d’affaires. January 5 its ambassador from Iran to Kuwait withdrew. What threatens escalation of the conflict between the two major Middle Eastern powers?
The complex relationship
The relationship between predominantly Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia for many years remain strained due to disagreements in a variety of issues – interpretation of Islam policy in oil exports, relations with the US and the West. Each of the countries is considered an informal leader in its segment of the Islamic world – Iran Shiite Saudi Arabia in the Sunni, and both historically compete for leadership in the Muslim community.
The relationship between the two countries have deteriorated significantly after the 1979 Islamic revolution, abolished the monarchy in Iran and returned to the government of disgraced Ayatollah Khomeini , after which Iran has actually become a theocratic state. The natural enemies of the country and made a sharply anti-American revolution: Saudi Arabia – traditionally the main US ally in the Islamic world. Revolution challenged the leadership of Saudi Arabia in the Islamic world and alarmed Sunni kingdom and other Gulf states with significant Shiite population, whose authorities feared the export of the Islamic revolution.
Because anyone conflict
Nimr al-Nimr was born in 1959 in eastern Saudi Arabia, where the Shiite population is concentrated around ten years he studied in the holy Shiite city of Qom (Iran), then in Syria, has become a popular preacher among Shiite youth. Al-Nimr criticized the Saudi government, advocated free elections and other reforms as well as against the oppression of the Shiites. He claimed that the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia, where large numbers of Shiite population must withdraw from the kingdom if the Shiite discrimination will continue. In 2008, to meet with him, US diplomats called Sheikh second leading Shiite figure in the country.
In 2004 and 2006, Nimr al-Nimr briefly arrested . In the last of his arrest during Shiite demonstrations in July 2012, has played a crucial role in social networks appeared Video Nimrah al-speech on the occasion of the death of the Minister of Internal Affairs of the Kingdom of Naif bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, who in 1975 oversaw the religious police. “He will eat worms, while he will undergo hellish torments in his grave,” – said al-Nimr in the video.
Sentenced to death for “inciting hatred and threats to national unity.” Sheikh was charged with calling for the intervention of foreign states in the case of Saudi Arabia, the use of weapons against the forces of law and order and disobedience to the authorities. Executed January 2, 2016.
But Iran has not officially started to support the Islamic revolution in other countries, and then the large-scale conflict between the two countries managed to avoid . It began only in 1988, after the attack on the protesters, the Saudi embassy in Tehran, which killed one diplomat. The reason for the conflict was the death in 1987 of about 400 Iranian pilgrims who arrived in the kingdom for the Hajj and killed in clashes with the local police. Then the country broke off diplomatic relations for the first time.
Since then, both countries have been put forward competing claims. Riyadh has accused Tehran of supporting the country’s current Shiite opposition, an effort to expand its influence in Iraq, the Levant, and other areas of the Middle East, as well as attempts to destabilize the region, to build nuclear weapons. Iran, in turn, accuses Saudi Arabia of violating the rights of the Shiite minority.
The last event exacerbate Iran-Saudi relations, was an agreement on the nuclear program of Iran, which in the case of removal from the Islamic Republic of sanctions will Tehran more financial and political capacity to defend their interests in the region.
In the conflicts in the Middle East, the two countries have always supported the polar fractions and the current Middle East conflict is no exception. The Syrian civil war, Iran – the main Middle East ally, President Bashar al-Assad, and Saudi Arabia – the main sponsor of the Syrian armed opposition. In the fight against “Islamic state” both countries are also involved in different coalitions – Saudi Arabia in the west, led by its US ally, and Iran – in coalition with Iraq and Russia.
The risks of escalation
«The situation resulting from the confrontation of the two most influential countries in the region, is unpredictable. Hybrid war [in Yemen] is already underway. In the coming weeks or months it can get out of control “, – he told CNN Middle East scholar at the London School of Economics Fawaz Dzherdes. Experts suggest that an open military confrontation Saudi Arabia and Iran in the near future will not go, but local conflicts in the Middle East, almost all of which involved the two countries worsen. “Since 1979, both countries indirectly entered into a number of local military conflicts throughout the Middle East and often exchanging threats and insults. But in the end they always stayed one step away from direct conflict, and came to the cold truce “- told Reuters Middle East expert at the Carnegie Endowment Karim Sadzhapur.
Opposition Riyadh and Tehran threatens to exacerbate the situation in one of these local conflicts in Yemen, where Saudi Arabia’s Sunni government support in the war against Shiite rebels Huthis receiving support from Iran. Also suggests Sadzhapur, Iran could provoke unrest among the Shia of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. “The degree of opposition increases, and I’m not sure that the tension will subside in the near future”, – told Bloomberg, former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia Robert Jordan.
One of the most important immediate consequence of the conflict between their patrons can be frustrating Bashar al-Assad government’s negotiations with the moderate Syrian opposition, scheduled for early this year. At the end of December 2015 the UN Secretary General’s special envoy on Syria, Stefan de Mistura said that consultations between the warring parties will be held in Geneva on 25 January. Officially, the West does not express doubt that the negotiations will take place, and now: “We continue to hope and expect that this month will be a meeting between the opposition and the Syrian authorities,” – said January 4th State Department spokesman John Kirby.
Unofficially, a Western diplomat said the publication Foreign Policy, that “the general background is clearly unfavorable.” Now n redstaviteli opposition may take a tougher stance toward Assad, Iran and Russia, and will be less willing to compromise, said the source publication. In these circumstances, a lot will depend on the diplomatic efforts of the United States and Russia, he added. “The current crisis will complicate the negotiation process”, – told Reuters on condition of anonymity, one of the American officials. Another official, quoted by the agency, called the situation “very fragile».
The representative of Saudi Arabia to the United Nations Abdullah al-Muallem said on January 4 that the Saudi delegation will take part in the talks, but did not has high hopes for their success.
«severance of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran makes it impossible to solve any other problems in the region – either in Yemen or in Syria or in Iraq. All local conflicts in the region will continue to grow. This will affect not only the stability of the Middle East, but also to the refugee problem “- quoted by Bloomberg president of consulting firm Eurasia Group Ian Bremmer.
Video: RBC
Oil conflicts do not help
Last year proved that in the current economic situation, the growth of tension in the Middle East is rising oil prices, as it always has: p on the results of 2015 the cost of Brent It is falling for the third year in a row, down by 35%. In the context of market saturation Iran-Saudi crisis could cause a short-term rise in oil prices – at $ 1-3 per barrel, leads the agency to John Auersa, vice-president of the consulting agency Turner, Mason & amp; Co. According to him, the conflict with Iran is unlikely to Saudi Arabia, the informal leader of OPEC, to change the strategy of excess production to put pressure on prices and crowding out Western Shale companies.
Indeed, in the early hours trading on Monday the news break dopotnosheny between Iran and Saudi Arabia caused a sharp jump in Brent up from $ 37 to $ 39 per barrel, despite the decline in stock market indices in China, Japan and Europe. But by the end of the trading day immediately thereafter returned to the level of oil $ 37.
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