Russia introduces new sanctions against Turkey: the answer Ankara – Moskovsky Komsomolets

Judge: “All politics Erdogan imprisoned for maintaining their own rating among voters»

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On Monday, December 28, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made changes to the decree on the application of special economic measures against Turkey. Now they are concerned not only Turkish companies operating in Russia, but also companies controlled by citizens or organizations of the country. At the same time, the President instructed to determine the list of companies and contracts, which are not subject to sanctions. However, the expert of “MK” believes that perhaps this indicates not to tighten or expansion of sanctions, and their reasonable specificity.

Photo: Mikhail Kovalev

Recall that the reason for the use of special economic measures against the Republic of Turkey was the incident with the Russian Su-24 bomber that was shot down Turkish fighter November 24 Syria. The Russian president called provocation “stab in the back” and on November 28 signed a decree on sanctions against Turkey. And a month later, followed by a new round of confrontation.

First, on Monday morning, Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said that the Russian government is going to extend already imposed restrictive measures against Turkey. According to him, the authorities plan to “consistently move in this way.” And in the afternoon on the Kremlin Web site has a new presidential decree, which he decided to adjust the previously announced sanctions. In particular, restrictions on certain types of work provided not only for the institutions under the jurisdiction of Turkey, but also for organizations, “controlled by the citizens of the Republic of Turkey».

– In fact, 50 to 80% of Turks, living in Russia, are not supporters of Erdogan. Therefore, it would be strange to declare in relation to sanction these people, – says Turkologist, candidate of political sciences Ilshat Saet . – I hope that our government will apply restrictive measures more selectively. For example, it will first find out – whether the one or another Turkish businessman policy of official Ankara, and then to close his business. Destroy the economic ties between the two countries is easy, but to restore them, and then take a long time.

– Can follow a symmetrical response on the part of the Turkish leadership with regard to Russia? What if Turkey refuses to buy our gas?

– It is hardly possible. Dependence on Russian energonositeteley in Turkey is nearly 63 percent. Of course, today the Turks will try to diversify supplies by Azerbaijan, Qatar. But it will take time – will take 1-2 years, because it will need to build supporting infrastructure. Still, to replace Russian gas for more than 20%, it will be difficult: we and the gas is cheaper, and build does not need anything.

– What in such a case can still answer our sanctions Turks? Is there a danger that Erdogan will introduce a ban on the supply to Russia of components for the automotive industry and our fabrics for light industry?

– His whole policy is tuned to maintain their own rating among voters. We do not want war with Russia, Erdogan said, accusing Moscow in the deterioration of our relations. But if he suddenly introduce some restrictions on economic ties with Russia and thus harm the Turkish business, it will be perceived very negatively in the country. I doubt that he would go on such risky measures just to take revenge on Putin. Of course, all the above applies only to the internal agenda and the economy, in military matters may have very different reasons. For Erdogan downed aircraft – a small victorious war, which is also working on its rating. This is indicated by the results of opinion polls, even. In the summer and autumn of heads of state support only 30-35% of the voters, then 2 weeks after the crash of the Su-24 has acted for it 53.5% of the respondents.

– Still, is it possible to the improvement of relations between our countries?

– Everything will depend on the country’s top officials. Predict what they will do, it is very difficult – this is an equation with many unknowns. It is possible that Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the next year will hold a referendum over whether to make Turkey a presidential republic. Let the people vote – for. He feels firmly in power and decides it’s time to establish relations with Russia, because it will bring economic benefits. Or, on the contrary, the power in Turkey will go to other people, and they have come to a dialogue with our guidance. This is also possible. But in any case, even after the change of the political agenda, the restoration of economic ties between our countries could take years. Now in Moscow lives up to 30 thousand Turks in the summer of 2016 about 90% of them will be forced to leave. At one end work visas, while others will close the business, there will be new contracts. And when these people leave, you no longer need in the Turkish restaurants, taxis and so on. It’s like a chain reaction. It is hardly necessary to explain that in a difficult economic situation, which is observed in Russia, minimizing any business activity – a risky step. I hope that our politicians also understand this, and therefore decided to impose sanctions selectively, and not against the Turks, or all of the Turkish business.