Photo: “RIA Novosti»
If oil prices will continue to fall, the parameters of the budget is now calculated based on the average price of $ 50 per barrel, would require clarification, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, speaking at the session “Russia and the World: A Look into the Future” Gaidar Forum. It is necessary to prepare for the “worst case scenario”, as is done in other countries, said Prime Minister.
«One must live within our means,” – Medvedev said, noting that the budget savings should involve primarily the costs of the state apparatus and lost income can be replaced by the privatization of the state assets.
The Prime Minister did not elaborate, it might look like “the worst scenario”. But a source in the financial-economic bloc of the government told RBC that the Finance Ministry is now considering two options for “stress” of the budget – at $ 40 and $ 25 / bbl. The first option considered basic. And in the second embodiment there is a risk to go beyond the budget deficit to 3% of GDP pledged in the current budget and specified in the instructions of President Vladimir Putin. If the scenario “of $ 25 per barrel,” the deficit could reach 7.5% of GDP, says the source. Then, additional measures to note the budget, including not only the spending of the Reserve Fund, but additional sources of income.
The current budget for 2016 is calculated based on the average price of Russian Urals oil at $ 50 / bbl., But now Urals is worth about $ 30. World oil prices since the start of the new year have fallen by about 15% and the balance is now in the region of $ 30-32 / bbl. The budget assumes is Russia’s economic growth in 2016 at 0.7%, but this month, Ministry of Economic Development shall prepare an updated forecast, where the dynamics of GDP will probably be revised downwards.
No comments:
Post a Comment