The failure of “progress” in the questions and answers – BBC Russian

• 29 April 2015

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Before ISS “Progress” was engaged in the supply of “Peace” and the two “Salute”

Flight of the spacecraft “Progress-M27M” to the International Space Station ended in failure.

” Installed failures of individual components and assemblies freight cargo ship and found no leakage of trunk-block propulsion system. In this regard, a further flight of the ship and its docking with the ISS does not seem possible “- said at a press conference in Moscow on Wednesday, the head of the Russian Space Agency, Igor Komarov.

According to Komarov, the Russian Space Agency trying to organize a controlled descent from orbit spacecraft.

What happened when you start?

Carrier rocket “Soyuz-2.1A” with cargo spacecraft “Progress-M27M” was launched from the Baikonur Cosmodrome on April 28 at 10: 10 Moscow time. After nine minutes the ship undocked from the third stage of the “Union”.

The ship passed the Earth at least partial telemetric information.

The fact that it happened at the time of separation, not reported. According to experts, at this time there was an event that led to the fact that the ship was not able to transmit telemetry to the ground and began to spin.

On the rotation of evidence, in particular, appeared on the Internet footage as allegedly on the body of the camera, “Progress”.

Mission Control Center attempts to contact the ship in those moments when he is in the “field of view” Russian communications space.

The ship sent command, and then watch whether he performs them – telemetry information from it almost does not arrive.

Roscosmos said that “controlled orbit” of the ship, but did not explain what that means.

Were there problems before “progress”?

The cargo ship was launched into operation in 1978, is one of the most reliable Russian spacecraft.

It serves for the fourth space station. Earlier, the “Progress” cargo transported on the “Salyut-6″, “Salyut-7″, “The World”.

For all the time was lost only one ship of this type, and then – when you run accident was caused by a malfunction in the launcher.

August 24, 2011 “Progress” has fallen in just a few minutes after the launch from Baikonur. How to set a check to the accident of “progress” has resulted in clogging of the gas generator in the third stage rocket motor “Union”.

According to experts, is a reliable vehicle that has proven its efficiency in dozens of successful launches for nearly 40 years .

What will happen to the ship on?

Now that Roskosmos officially announced the impossibility of docking with the ISS, there are two possible options – either ship will fall to Earth he or it gently “toppled”.

So far, the information that the ship respond to the Earth, have been reported.

Meanwhile, a variety of sources in the space industry, often anonymous, news agencies reported that the orbit of the ship is reduced. He slowly falls.

One of these sources said that there is a version, according to which the uncontrollable ship “catches” the lowest point of its orbit (perigee) the upper atmosphere, and it slows down it, which in turn leads to a decrease in orbit.

There are already various calculations about the fall. They vary widely, but they all said that it will fall until May 10.

Is it dangerous to fall “Progress”?

According to experts, the fall debris can occur in a broad belt from 52 degrees north to 52 degrees south latitude – from Berlin to the Falkland Islands.

Most of the spacecraft burned while passing through the Earth’s atmosphere. Exactly how many burn depends on whether to start the “Progress” to collapse before entering the atmosphere. According to one version, as a result of contingency ship was surrounded by rubble.

In addition, the process of destruction depends on the angle at which the space truck will go into the atmosphere.

A member of the Russian Academy of Cosmonautics Yuri Karash recalls that the total weight of the Earth spacecraft ever to visit the wreckage of station “Mir”, submerged in the Pacific Ocean in 2001 amounted to about 20-30 tons, which is about one-sixth of the total weight of the station.

As the BBC -bi BBC chief editor of “Space News” Igor Marinin, the Russian Space Agency have experience in an uncontrolled descent from orbit “progress” is not, as all previous launches ended in controlled flooding as a result of the accident the only spacecraft to orbit not reached.

Therefore, no one knows how to survive the test vehicle.

According Marinin, the ship does not have thermal protection, and should burn almost all. Its design has a massive and sleek details that may not burn completely.

He thinks that could theoretically survive spherical tanks with compressed gases can survive combustion engines, made of fire-resistant materials.

According to Marinin, the probability that the debris may fall as a result of harm to human health is extremely low.

As stated at a press conference in Moscow, the head of the flight of the Russian segment of the ISS, Vladimir Solovyov, the wreckage vehicle does not reach the earth’s surface. According to him, the experience of flooding “progress” in unnavigable Pacific shows that “all tend to burn in the dense layers of the atmosphere up to an altitude of 60 kilometers”.

What now will the ISS?

“Progress” was supposed to deliver to the ISS water, food and other supplies.

But his failure does not present a hazard to astronauts. The stock of rations at the station solid, and most experts agree that worry on this score is not worth at least another four months.

During this time, to the ISS must go the American cargo ship and space expedition of Japan.

But history knows cases where due to the reduction in the number of flights to the ISS daily allowance of food for the astronauts decreased. This happened in 2004, after the termination of the flight of US space shuttle due to the collapse of the shuttle “Columbia”. Rations then “lost weight” from 3000 to 2700 calories a day.

As the ship was insured?

“Ingosstrakh” and SOGAZ insured jointly launch and docking ” Progress “on 2 billion rubles.

“The amount of any payments are not critical to the financial condition of SOGAZ: our company pay for its obligations by an average of about 135 million rubles on a daily basis,” – said the BBC BBC first deputy chairman Nikolai Galushin SOGAZ. The contract of insurance “progress” is reinsured in the international companies, he SOGAZ to pay about 150 million.

As said company spokeswoman Catherine Dvoinikov, the decision on payment will be made in the event that the ship will not be able to dock with ISS, and only after the conclusion of the Russian Space Agency and TSENKI (Center for operation of ground-based space infrastructure).

When the launch will be officially recognized as a failure, it will be necessary to determine the cause of the launch failure: the launcher itself or the cargo ship. “If there is a clear reason, either in relation to the” Union “, or for” Advance “cost of insurance can be increased,” – said Galushin.

It is known that representatives “Ingosstrakh” evaluated failure to start launcher “Proton-M” with the satellite communication about a year ago, as a significant loss. That launch was insured by nearly 8 billion rubles, according to the representative of the insurance company, a series of setbacks with “Proton” pushing Western insurance companies to refuse to reinsurance risks to launch these missiles.

In a spacecraft “Progress” Reputation is much better than the rocket “Proton”.

What will happen to the “Union” and “progress”?

Work on the construction of a new “Proton “will not be stopped,” the Union “will fly.

” failed launch of the truck “Progress” will not mean the end of the use of the carrier rocket “Soyuz”, – said the deputy head of the Russian Federal Space Agency Alexander Ivanov.

According Marinin will be soon formed an emergency committee with representatives from all manufacturing facilities and employees of Federal Space Agency, which will examine all available information and find out at what point and what went wrong – to blame if the third stage of the launch vehicle or the ship itself.

Once it is established that it is not worked out, he said, Roskosmos will look, whether the item is set, the fault which led to the accident, in other devices.

In any event, considers Marinin, flying rockets and the ship will be suspended. This, however, will not affect the “Union of FG” which brings into orbit manned spacecraft “Soyuz”, as its third stage is different from stage “At Union”.

Currently, the Federal Space Agency plans to send next “Progress” to the ISS in the third quarter of 2015, and another one – in the fourth quarter.